Tigers Thoughts: Transcendental Transactions

Like many going into the season, I had some well-reigned in expectations for the Detroit Tigers. They had some fight in them in 2023, enough so that they finished a distant second in the division, and they had some interesting young fellas in the minors – some even getting a cup of coffee with the big club – that made the future seem a little bit brighter. BUT, for the most part, another year of missing the postseason appeared to be in store.

Well now, don’t I feel like a big booger-eating nincompoop?

Ye Young Tigres went on an absolute tear to close out the season, making it honestly the most fun I have had watching baseball since (no joke) 2006. That ’06 squad helmed by Jim Leyland, featuring Magglio Ordoñez, Pudge Rodriguez, and a host of home-grown try-hards, surpassed any expectations that fans had to begin the year, and that same feral fervor found us again. It was insane; the young guys came up and DID THINGS, AJ Hinch was a savant playing 9D chess, and Tarik Skubal led a slew of pitchers in doing the best anyone could possibly imagine. And we all lapped it up and asked for more….

…and they did! They kept moving up the AL Central standings, elbowing their way into Wild Card contention and did well enough that they could fart around the last two regular season games, giving everyone time to stay warm and see who could help most in the postseason. It was a gorgeous collision of chaos and euphoria, like someone barfing a rainbow. The Tigers then shocked the baseball world by beating the snot out of the Astros and had the almighty Cleveland Guardians pushed to the brink of elimination before the wheels finally gave out. It was a hell of a ride, I enjoyed it IMMENSELY.

But that brings us to now, staring down the barrel of an uncertain offseason. We’ve had Scott Harris in charge for a while now, but that doesn’t lend fans any new insight into how he’s running this ship. It feels a bit like how Lions fans try to assume they know what GM Brad Holmes is going to do to improve the team, and then he goes out and does something wily and we all don’t comprehend exactly WHAT the ramifications are going to be until the Lions are suddenly Super Bowl contenders.

Did that comparison make me seem like some kind of Harris fanboy, unhinged enough to claim the Tigers could be World Series favorites in a time of Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge? I hope not, because I harbor no illusions of grandeur. However, I do have some simple insights as to what I think the Tigers could do to continue their positive growth into a team that can really cause some damage in the playoffs. I’m a bit rusty at this sort of thing, but I used to be pretty good at it, so let’s see if any of these ideas come to fruition or are the ravings of a madman (hint: I’m a little bananas).

1.     EXTEND THE GOOD BOYS  

Part of what good teams have done in the past is secure their young players at solid rates to buy up their arbitration years. For the most part, this builds trust with the team, engenders loyalty, and creates a safe environment that players find appealing.  Another positive in doing business this way is locking in young, improving players on deals that age well compared to how large the market dictates contracts could become.

At this point, the Tigers should look into locking in a few players who have not only proved immeasurably important to the team’s success on the field but have also become fan favorites for their actions off the field: Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Jake Rogers, and Will Vest.

Skubal is a no-brainer for an extension: a home-grown prospect who has overcome adversity to become one of the best starting pitchers in the league. His development is representative of the Tigers’ ascension into a haven for improving pitchers, joining the likes of Houston and Tampa Bay. Having him ink a long-term deal not only shows the belief this team has in his skills, but also that they want to win with him in the future. The Tigers haven’t had a pitcher like this since Justin Verlander, and it would be prudent for them to attach their wagon to Skubal.

Greene is another example of success within the Tigers for grooming a foundational piece. He’s quietly become one of the best outfielders in the American League (no kidding! His 4 WAR ranked him sixth among AL OF, just behind Steven Kwan and ahead of Julio Rodriguez, Anthony Santander, and Randy Arozarena) with room to grow as he gains experience. He’s a five-tool guy who could lock down left field for a decade.

With Rogers and Vest, they are quality pieces at tough-to-fill positions. Rogers has shown pop, defensive acumen, and an ability to bring out the best in pitchers – especially Skubal. He’s also a wonderful clubhouse presence, a dude who every Detroit fan appreciates. Same with Vest, who has become a key component in the bullpen. Remember him at the Little League showcase game against the Yankees? Dude won over the hearts of thousands by riding a cardboard piece down a hill, and then evolved into the Tigers’ best postseason reliever by a mile. Both can be signed for solid market deals, maybe a touch below if they allow for a hometown discount.

2.     SIGN FREE AGENTS THAT ENHANCE THE PARADIGM

This is a touchy subject for Tigers faithful. In the past Mike Ilitch would simply throw money at the shiniest objects on the open market, albatross deals be damned. This approach soured mightily with Al Avila’s ham-handed way of giving big deals to players who didn’t come close to deserving them, and now it seems like every FA deal post-Jay Baez is just a future headache waiting to happen.

However, Scott Harris has shown a willingness to invest wisely in the FA market, not necessarily acquiring the biggest and best, but players who seem like they’ll be good fits for the Tigers. This includes players coming off down years as long as they have solid track records with upside (remember this when we get to the fourth point).

When looking at this market one has to see players like former Tigers prospect Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, and Anthony Santander and think about how they’d look in an Olde English D – how could you not, especially with how much los Tigres struggled to score runs in the postseason? However, we have to remember two things: First, all of those players are expected to receive Qualifying Offers from their current teams. Assuming they don’t take the QO, it means whichever team signs them will have to forfeit draft picks commensurate with the salary the player receives. It’s a tangled mess determining who gets which picks and why, but MLBtraderumors lays it out that anyone signing Adames will have to give up a first-round pick in addition to a monster contract.

The second thing we have to remember is that, barring dead money, the Tigers have spent SO LITTLE ON SALARY for their current players! We all saw the graphic during the playoffs that Detroit’s entire playoff roster made LESS than Houston’s Josh Hader. Spotrac has an estimated active payroll for the 2025 Tigers as roughly $42 million (factoring in potential arbitration raises, renewals, and current big league contracts), and there is a TON of dead money coming off the books ($36 million!!!). This means that there is a lot of payroll flexibility to account for, and if the past is a good teacher then Detroit must spend WISELY.

Players that could really help out at a reasonable price would be a returning Jack Flaherty, who genuinely seemed to enjoy his time in Detroit, and San Diego Padres shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Flaherty is a no-brainer, as Chris Fetter and co essentially helped resurrect his career, but he could command an enormous contract as the starting pitcher class is relatively weak outside of Corbin Burns.

Kim is entirely dependent on the mutual contract option with the Padres, meaning if he wants a guaranteed $7 million salary on a contending team all he has to do is agree with San Diego and BOOM, the option is picked up (because they’d be fools not to want this guy). Kim is a genuinely talented player who previously played in the Korean baseball league, has a great glove, great wheels, and a great batting eye. He fits into the Tigers paradigm perfectly with those skills, plus an ability to also play second and third base if needed.

If those two guys are unavailable, I’d look to starters who have shown the potential to improve/resurrect their careers in Detroit (guys like Sean Manea who pulled a JD Martinez and reinvented himself last season, Walker Buehler who has skills but seems to be a bit lost, and potential feel-good reunions with Justin Verlander and/or Max Scherzer), or players who can get on base and play a few positions (like 3 True Outcome & defensive stalwart Joey Gallo, the resurgent Jurickson Profar, and my former favorite Tiger & ageless wonder Jose Iglesias).

3.     LOOK FOR TALENT THAT NEEDS OPPORTUNITY

This seems like a Harris special in his short time steering the ship. He brought in Matt Vierling, Zach McKinstry, Trey Sweeney, and Justin Henry Malloy via trades and found spots for them to help the Tigers’ playoff push. He has used the waiver system to great effect too, with pickups like Tyler Holton, Andy Ibanez, and Sean Guenther. As a baseball evaluator, he excels at finding players in need of more reps.

I think he should continue along these lines, scoping out teams with a glut of talent at positions, scenarios which see young players blocked from regular playing time. One guy I’m particularly interested in is Texas Rangers backup Josh H Smith. This guy was actually a Detroit Tigers draft pick way back in 2016 (38th round, baby!), but he elected to play college ball at LSU instead. He obviously has good pedigree coming from a baseball powerhouse like LSU, and won a World Series as a bench piece for the Rangers. Unfortunately, he’s blocked at his primary positions by Josh Jung (third base) and Corey Seager (shortstop), so he’s looking for a shot. He’s lefthanded, has a great eye, plays solid defense, and has solid pop. It seems like it wouldn’t cost an arm and a leg to get him, as he’s 27 and no longer considered a prospect.

4.     CHANGE OF SCENERY

Okay, this is a meaty one. I’ve had luck in the past predicting a big contract swap with the Tigers, and it was tough to try and find a similar contract that could be switched without completely screwing up the future of the team. However, I found a potential trade of two former teammates that could work out well for both teams in the long run: trading incumbent albatross Javy Baez for Colorado’s Kris Bryant.

Now, would this really give the Tigers a guy who could conceivably come in and offer some truly revelatory seasons alá Ian Kinsler? Honestly, probably not, but there’s honestly not much to do with the animated baseball corpse of Baez other than see if the Tigers can once again get some sort of reclamation going (remember point 2 up there?). It’s either try Bryant or get anti-baseball turd Anthony Rendon…

Fantasy baseball savant Ron Shandler has a theory I like for player evaluation, and that’s when a player acquires and displays a skill they then own that skill. I think that holds pretty well for someone like Bryant, who has always shown a keen knack for getting on base, even when hampered by injuries. He can also field multiple positions (3B, 1B, all three OF), which works wonderfully with Hinch’s modus operandi. Also, and this is just intangible stuff, he’s been a good clubhouse presence and even a leader in Chicago, San Francisco, and Colorado.

Sure, this isn’t a slam dunk – Bryant has been ravaged by injuries the last several years, including a bad back, which is generally the death knell for power hitters. He’s also seemed to struggle at Coors Field, of all places, which is very odd. But that could tie back to his achy back sapping his home run power, or maybe it’s a psychological thing wherein you forget how to hit normally when you’re in a place that enables big swings. And yes, there’s an extra year on Bryant’s deal compared to Baez’s, with an extra $2m per season weighing heavier as well. This could actually lead to trade that works for both sides, though: in order to take on the extra year and extra dollars, maybe the Rockies would be more open to taking on Kenta Maeda’s wacky one-year deal. Or maybe the Tigers could finagle a prospect or two to soften the blow of Bryant’s bloated deal.

Regardless, leaving Colorado could do more good than harm for this former top MLB player – look at how well Jurickson Profar did after leaving that dead-end team for a competitive environment. The bottom line is that having a guy who combines those three attributes/skills fits almost seamlessly into the current culture in Detroit. Hell, maybe being in a town that’s currently baseball crazy on a team that’s thriving will help reignite something in him.

5.     GOOD GOD GIVE JUAN SOTO MONEY

This won’t happen, I’ll say that right now. This is so outrageously preposterous that we can't even wrap our heads around the possibility. It’s buying a lottery ticket and actually winning. As I said, this absolutely will not happen.

…but what if it did?

The Tigers are in a very interesting spot right now, with a minuscule payroll and an unexpectedly deep playoff run. They have a roster that desperately needs a difference-maker, that craves a Miguel Cabrera-like presence in the middle to solidify an attack for years to come. Detroit used to be a team that would swing for the fences on large deals, so why not now?

Remember: this is not OUR money that is being (hypothetically) spent here, but it will be an ungodly amount. Think upwards of $700 million, Shohei-Ohtani money. Soto is too talented and too young (he’s only 25!!!) not to get a deal pushing a billion dollars. However, deferment is indeed a thing that teams are using more and more, and spreading his bajillion dollars over a ludicrous amount of time could help ease the financial burden for the Ilitch family. And really, bringing in someone like Soto would be like extending Cabrera, wherein his march toward the HoF brings in more revenue over time and justifies his bonkers deal in the long run. Baseball contracts are only going to get whackier as time passes, so locking in a huge deal now won’t look so bad in the future, especially in regards to an UNPRECEDENTED FREE AGENT WHO IS ONLY 25 YEARS OLD AND IS ALREADY ONE OF THE THREE BEST OFFENSIVE PLAYERS IN BASEBALL.

Of course, every team in the entirety of Major League Baseball will have to look in the mirror this offseason and ask itself if it wants to break the bank for a generational talent. The only difference is that the Tigers are one of the very few teams that could conceivably justify signing him.

And that’s it, those are my thoughts heading into the off-season on the heels of one of the most annoying World Series in my memory. This is a regime that I admire for its creativity and efficiency, and I haven’t been an avid baseball writer in years, so take all this with a big fuckin’ brick of salt, so I could be embarrassingly off the mark regarding every point I tried to make. But, honestly, I don’t care – if this team can make me care so passionately again as I did in this past season, I will be as content as possible.